System Links
STIP
LTIP
MicroMatrix
Descriptor
Skills-Based Projections
Data and Other Input Files - Preparation and Modifications
National Projections Information
Projections Workgroup Research
ETA Deliverables Letter - June 16, 2010 (.pdf). This letter provides instructions on how to produce the ETA deliverable extracts for 2010, who to contact for questions, and where to send the files.
August 15, 2005 (.pdf). Articles included: (1) Time to Start 2004-2014 Projections; (2) Total Employment Concept; (3) Reconciling Differences Between OES, QCEW, and CES: CIPSEA and NAICS Coding Changes; (4) ST Occupational Projections on Projections Central; (5) New and Improved Dev.Projections Central; (6) How to Stay Informed; (7) More about the Projections Bulletin; and (8) Improving MicroMatrix Confidentiality Screening - New Instructions for Extracting OES Staffing Patterns from EDS.
Industry Projections (STIP and LTIP)
NAICSPushback.zip - 31 KB 3/3/2004. This file contains information about constructing your NAICS-based employment series back to 1990, if you have not already done so.
Technical Notes for the National Historical Employment Time Series.zip - 13 KB 3/26/2004. This file includes technical notes about dealing with breaks in the ratio-based National Historical Employment Time Series. Included as well is a list of NAICS codes where there appears to be a break in the series due to conversion. This list is included so you can use it as a guide when reviewing your state's or territory's converted series.
NAICS_Ratio.zip - 15 KB 2/18/2004. This file contains information about constructing your NAICS-based employment series prior to 1990. For long-term projections it is recommended that you have twenty years of historical employment data. In order to convert SIC data prior to 1990 to NAICS, ratios need to be created using a dual-coded quarter.
The Conversion to NAICS: Some Implications for States to Develop Long-Term Industry Projections (.pdf) - 1/2004. This paper recommends that analysts include a dummy variable for the NAICS break in 1990 in their ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models.
Occupation Projections (MicroMatrix)
Estimating Delivery System (EDS) and Micro Matrix System - January 2010. This document details the steps required to create an Estimates Delivery System (EDS) v4.6 export file for use in MicroMatrix. The EDS file contains the staffing patterns needed for occupational projections as well as detail and aggregate level confidentiality flags.
EDS V4.6 Manual (eds4.6man.zip). This set of documents provides the instructions on how to use the Estimates Delivery System v4.6 to produce employment and wages estimates based on OES data.
Occupational Mapping Explanatory Notes (.doc) - 3/2006. This updated document explains the mapping issues between OES/SOC codes and pseudo-codes. It includes suggestions for staffing pattern and employment adjustments.
Tips and Tricks in the MicroMatrix System (.doc) - 12/2004. This document outlines some useful information about importing files into the MicroMatrix and modifying files once they are in the system.
Skills-Based Projections
Skills Based Projection Import Process (.pdf) - 5/2007. This documument has information for creating an import file for SBP and the steps to import the file.
STIP
Short Term System User Guide - 8/14/2006. Download the User Guide for the Short Term System.
LTIP
2010 LTIP Training Materials - 4.3 MB 4/2010. This file contains all the training materials from the LTIP training session in Golden in January 2010.
Projections Manual (.pdf) - 286 KB 8/2005. This file contains a PDF version of the August 2005 edition of "Projecting State and Area Industry Employment", written by Harvey Goldstein. This monograph provides guidance on how to develop long-term industry employment projections. This edition updates sections on data, including the conversion from SIC to NAICS, and adds new material on the use of dummy variables in regression models. It also includes a new section on the use of "new economy" indicators as independent variables.
State Employment Projections Manual .(pdf) - 5/2001. This is the May 2001 edition of "Projecting Long-Term Industry and Occupational Employment for States and Areas." Although updates are needed to refer to NAICS, it is still a useful resource.
MicroMatrix
MicroMatrix User Guide - 4/2008. This document has step by step instructions for using the MicroMatrix system.
Training Materials (MMPPTS2010.ZIP) - 5.6 MB 3/2010. This archive contains all of the PowerPoint presentations used during the March 2010 MicroMatrix training in Golden.
State Employment Projections Manual (.pdf) - 5/2001. This is the May 2001 edition of "Projecting Long-Term Industry and Occupational Employment for States and Areas." Although updates are needed to refer to NAICS, it is still a useful resource.
Descriptor
Training Slides (DescTraining.PPT) - 182 KB 10/2003.
Statistics Reference (.doc) - 10/2003. This reference was included at the October 2003 training.
Skills-Based Projections
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections (OOSEP) provides reports on the most recent national projections, reviews of past national projections, and documents explaining occupational projections methodology.
BLS Projections Presentation 2006-2016 - 1.37 MB 4/2008. This file provides the Power Point slides used by BLS in their presentation of the 2006-2016 projections process.
BLS Educational Clusters 2004-2014 (BLS_Educ_Clusters_0414.xls) - 1.19 MB 8/2006. This file provides an electronic version of the BLS educational cluster assignments for each occupation (such as high school, some college, college, etc.). You may use this information to replicate the cluster analysis for your state.
Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections. This OOSEP home page provides links to all of the BLS projections-related information.
November 2005 Monthly Labor Review. This edition of the Monthly Labor Review is devoted to the 2004-2014 national projections.
National Projections Highlights 2004-2014 (NationalProjectionsInfo.zip) - 716 KB 3/2006. These two PowerPoint presentations highlight information from the national 2004-2014 projections. LF, Output, Ind, Occ Projections 2004-14 looks at the national labor force, output, industry employment and occupational employment projections. The occupational Projections in Detail 2004-14 focuses just on the national occupational employment projections.
Occupational Projections and Training Data 2004-05 Edition. This is a statistical and research supplement for the 2002-2012 projections. The update for the 2004-2014 projections is scheduled for Spring 2006.
Occupational Outlook Handbook 2006-07 Edition. This book is a nationally recognized source of career information, designed to provide valuable assistance to individuals making decisions about their future work lives. Revised every two years, the Handbook describes what workers do on the job, working conditions, the training and education needed, earnings, and expected job prospects in a wide range of occupations.
BLS Handbook of Methods (Chapter 13). This chapter entitled "Employment Projections" provides an in-depth explanation of BLS projections methodology.
Spring 2003 Occupational Outlook Quarterly, "The 1988-2000 Employment Projections: How Accurate Were They". This article examines the accuracy of the national projections for 1988-2000.
The Projections Workgroup is committed to funding research projects that improve (1) development of the industry or occupational projections data; (2) our understanding of customer needs; (3) timeliness of the projections; (4) staff training; and (5) presentation of projections information.
Industry Projections
Indicators for Long-Term Industry Employment Projections (.pdf)- 278 KB 5/2005. The structure and performance of state economies have changed substantially during the last twenty years. These changes challenge us to rethink the indicator variables used in our long-term industry employment projections models. This research, conducted by Dr. Harvey Goldstein, identifies a set of new economy variables that could be used to improve employment projections models.
Evaluation of State Industry Employment Projections to 2000 (.pdf) - 12/2004. This report, prepared by Dr. Harvey Goldstein, evaluates the accuracy of states' industry employment projections for the year 2000.
Occupational Projections
Occupational Demographics: Interstate Variation from the 2000 Census (.pdf) - 7/2004. This report, prepared by Dr. Harvey Goldstein, examines the validity of using national occupational replacement rates in each state. The analysis is based on 2000 Census data.
Improving the Occupational Outlook
Executive Summary and Consolidated Results to Date (.pdf) - 7/2002.
Supply and Demand in the Long-Term Employment Outlook (.pdf) - 7/2002.
Estimating Employment Using Licensing Data (.pdf) - 7/2002.
Accuracy of Sub-State Staffing Patterns (.pdf) - 7/2002.
Minnesota is undertaking five related research projects for the Projections Workgroup. The overall goal of these projects is to provide states with advice on how they may be able to improve their occupational projections. Above is the work completed as of July 2002.
Skills-Based Projections
SBP Replacement Index (.pdf) - 8/2005. The Skills-Based Projections (SBP) application currently includes four measures: current supply of skills, projected demand for skills, skills gap index, and replacement index. The SBP project team has completed a report on the replacement index that now only reviews the methodology of its construction, but also analyzes the array of replacement rates in the BLS-supplied files to better understand the impact of business cycles (2-year) and trend growth (10-year) on skill demand.
Descriptors
Occupational Descriptors: Enhancing Information for Customer Choice (.pdf) - Summer 2002. This paper describes the methodology of the occupational descriptors.
O*NET Scale and Score Descriptions (.doc) - 93 KB 11/2005. This document contains definitions for the O*Net Skills, Knowledge and Work Activity descriptors.
Forecasting Principles. This site summarizes a wide variety of knowledge about forecasting so that it can be used by researchers, practitioners, and educators. The site is directed by Professor J. Scott Armstrong and hosted by the Marketing Department of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.